Title:
Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Key Design and Economic Parameters in Hybrid Microgrid Optimization Using HOMER Pro

Authors:
Etiebet A. Udo*, Nseobong I. Okpura, Kingsley M. Udofia, Nigeria

Abstract:

This paper investigates the sensitivity and uncertainty characteristics of techno-economic parameters in the optimization of a hybrid microgrid system designed for sustainable rural electrification in the agrarian community of Ibiaku Ikot Oku, Nigeria. Using Hybrid Optimization of Multiple Energy Resources Professional (HOMER Pro) software, the study modelled a hybrid system integrating solar photovoltaic (PV), wind turbines, and battery energy storage to address the region’s acute energy deficit. While the optimized baseline configuration achieved a renewable fraction of 94.2% and eliminated the need for diesel generation in the optimal case, the study rigorously examines how variations in critical inputs, specifically solar irradiance, component costs, and discount rates, affect the system’s economic and technical viability. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the system remains economically robust under resource uncertainty; variations in solar irradiance of ±15% resulted in a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) range of $0.042-$0.058/kWh, which remains significantly lower than the grid extension tariff of $0.21/kWh. Furthermore, the study identified battery storage costs as a pivotal economic driver: a ±20% cost variation shifted the Net Present Cost (NPC) by approximately ±$49,640, underlining the need for robust financial planning for storage technologies. The findings show that a renewable-heavy hybrid configuration offers a resilient, cost-effective pathway for rural electrification, achieving a carbon intensity of 0 kgCO₂/kWh compared to the national grid’s 0.48 kgCO₂/kWh. These insights provide a validated framework for policymakers and engineers seeking to de-risk decentralized energy investments in developing economies.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.51505/ijaemr.2026.11303