Title:
Integrating Scenario-based Policy Tools for Sustainable Commodity Landscapes: A Case Study of Oil Palm and Arabica Coffee in North Sumatra, Indonesia

Authors:
Bambang Tri Sasongko Adi, Surahman Putra, Ratna Kusuma Sari, Bonie Dewantara, Puspita Suryaningtyas, Indonesia

Abstract:

This article explores the integration of Targeted Scenario Analysis (TSA) into policy-making for sustainable commodity landscapes, focusing on oil palm and Arabica coffee in Man ailing Natal, North Sumatra, Indonesia. Using a mixed-methods approach that combined scenario modeling, stakeholder interviews, and institutional analysis, we compare outcomes under Business-As-Usual (BAU) and Sustainable Ecosystem Management (SEM) pathways. The SEM scenario revealed significant ecological and economic benefits, including reduced deforestation, improved farmer incomes, and better biodiversity outcomes. However, we also identify institutional fragmentation, symbolic stakeholder participation, and knowledge asymmetries that limit TSA's transformative potential. The study argues that TSA can be a powerful tool for sustainability transitions when embedded in reflexive, participatory, and coordinated governance frameworks. Policy recommendations include embedding TSA into spatial planning cycles, strengthening local capacity, and enhancing participatory scenario co-production to align with Indonesia's Forest and Other Land Use (FOLU) Net Sink 2030 targets.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.51505/ijaemr.2025.1307