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Abstract:
The monthly exporting and importing data from January 1988 to April 2019, totally 376 months, were used to systematically study the trading time series of Taiwan. The data used to analyze were obtained from the public archives of Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics (DGBAS), Ministry of Finance (MOF), and Bureau of Foreign Trade (BFT) of Taiwan, Republic of China. After analyses, the author found that Asia was the most important trading continent for Taiwan in exporting and importing. The average exporting values from Taiwan to Asia was accounted for 71.67% of Taiwan's total exporting amount. China was the most important country for the exportation of Taiwan in Asia, and it shared an average of 56.37% of exporting values in Asia. ASEAN (10 nations) became the second largest trading zone for the exporting of Taiwan in Asia, and it grabbed 24.98% of the exporting amount in Asia. After scrutinizing ASEAN, the author found that the most important exporting country was Singapore, and it shared 30.58% of exporting values from Taiwan to ASEAN.
As for the importing values, Asia grasped champion, 59.13%, of the total importing values from the whole world. China held the pinnacle in Asia, with 33.14% of total importing values from Asia. Singapore crowned the throne in ASEAN, and it shared 26.40% of the total importing values from ASEAN to Taiwan.
The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method was used to identify the trading patterns between Taiwan and the whole world. With the help of autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF), the author found that ARIMA(3,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model can be used to simulate and to do the short-term forecast of the total exporting and importing values of Taiwan. By using the proposed ARIMA(3,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model to do the error analyses for the total exporting and importing values, the average monthly trading amount biased 5.81% and 4.55%, respectively.
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