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Abstract:
In this paper, the author delves into the time series of energy released by earthquakes each year (from 1995 to 2017) as well as each month (from January 1995 to June 2018) for the whole of Taiwan and especially, three eastern coast counties, Milan, Hyaline, and Tatung. The energy issued from each earthquake is transferred to the equivalent atomic bomb which was dropped on Hiroshima, Japan with the code-named Little Boy. Each year in the average sense, the total earthquakes release 34.9 atomic bombs in Taiwan - 4.48 in Milan, 7.88 in Hyaline, and 5.14 in Tatung. The energy released by earthquakes in each month is also calculated by the equivalent atomic bombs. The stationary ties for the energy released by total and labelled earthquakes are checked by the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) method, and they are all stationary. The time series for monthly number of earthquakes in Taiwan and three eastern coast counties are all stationary. The patterns of the time series of labelled number of earthquakes are recognized through autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF). After the parameters p, q, r of the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) method is determined, and then they can be used to forecast labelled earthquake numbers. The deviation between observed and forecasted also evaluated. The average number of deviation per month is 6.7 for the whole of Taiwan, 1.5 for Milan, 3.6 for Hyaline, and 0.9 for Tatung.
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